AIH                My long-term prophesy                                                                  12 March 2008

It is well known that futurology is a very inexact science and all sorts of things crop up that were not expected by the author.  For instance, the Victorians prophesied that in the future (their future) that colleges would be set up to train the working classes to be good servants to the middle and upper classes.  They totally mis-saw that society would become so much more egalitarian that servants became a minority, with only very wealthy people being able to employ them  But I am going to stick my neck out and prophesy the future as I see it today.

There's lot written and said about climate change.  But very little seems to be said about the REAL cause of the potentially traumatic future.  Yes, the REAL cause is that there are just too many people on this planet.  Global gases is probably the intermediary cause, but why is there so much of these gases in the atmosphere?  Simply because mankind wants things that generate these gases.  This problem, and a lot of others, are brought about by, quite simply, too many people. Nature can repair a lot of damage to its system, but it has its limit; and we have gone beyond that limit.  And as things are in most of the world, it will get worse before it gets better.

But the Chinese are showing us the way forward.  They did so  in the very early days when they discovered that people were better off living in groups than simply roaming the countryside hunting and gathering.  This is part of my belief that the Orientals are the most intelligent of the racial groups, with us Indo-Europeans being somewhere in the middle of the spectrum.

What are the Chinese showing us?  That there has to be a curb on human fecundity; i.e. one-child families.  There will, of course, have to be an end to that policy, as it would eventually reduce the population to zero.  But the Chinkies are not that stupid.  And we, in the west, will have to adopt a very similar policy sooner or later.  When Europe and the USA start to get round the the idea, there will be screams and shouts, especially from the religious right.  I am not certain how places like India will adapt, but they too will have to be persuaded to join in.  Whether the persuasion will be peaceful or violent is something only time will tell.

The aging population is another potential problem, but I don't see it as insurmountable.  I am now 82 and I could still do a day's productive work.  True, I couldn't dig up roads or clamber around scaffolding on  building sites with my two gammy feet, but I could still do the job I retired from as it was mainly sedentary.  But just look at the changes that have taken place in the last few years.  Hard physical work is almost a thing of the past, with so many labour-saving devices.  There will have to be a lot of minor changes, such as the ways and means of making things, and the way we live in our houses.  But providing we can come through the trauma of reducing our population, I see no insurmountable problem.

Comments please.