ABC                        A very uncertain world

1    The recent tsunami points out that we live in a very uncertain world.  It is known that it will be several billion years before the sun swells and engulfs all the inner planets, but the possibility of being struck by a wayward asteroid, is always with us.  Perhaps man will manage to build himself an artificial home at a safe place in the galaxy within a few hundred years.  My own sci-fi fantasy would then be realised when this planet become uninhabitable due to the  efforts of its inhabitants.  (I may post that story at some time in the future).

2    I have listed below the three most traumatic events that have occurred in the recent history of the planet.  And there are at least two more similar events prophesied for the not too-distant future.  Pompeii was buried  by Vesuvius in 79AD with an immense loss of life.  Krakatoa (a volcanic island in the Sunda Strait between Java and Sumatra, was destroyed in 1883 by "the greatest eruption in recorded history".  Various stories have been told about that event including the one that it was the biggest bang in recorded history.  And now we have the Asian Tsunami to form the trio.

3    The first two of the three above were pretty small beer compared with the third one.  Volcanic events on the surface only spread their devastation for a few hundred miles.  But the recent eruption took place in very deep water.  The noise on the surface was probably muted by the material between the explosion and free air.  But the opening of a fissure deep in the bed of the ocean allowed thousands of gallons of sea-water to fall into white hot magma, was a very serious event.  How many litres of steam was generated, and at what speed, can only be guessed at.  What can be said with some certainty, is that several cubic miles of sea-water was driven away from the explosion at high speed.

4    If a liner were sailing across the ocean when the pulse of high-speed water passed under the ship, it would probably not have been noticed.  Water is almost incompressible, and the normal surface agitation caused by the wind and waves would have obliterated any effect on the floating vessel.  It is only when the bulk of water started to mount a continental shelf, that its effect would have been noticeable.  If a cubic mile of water is moving at high speed, and it becomes channelled into a depth of, say, fifty feet,, the water will not compress any further and rises up out of the ocean into a moving wall of liquid.  The water had an enormous inertia, as was demonstrated by the damage done to coastal buildings wherever the waves struck.

5    The Japanese have met tsunami many times over the years and have made some progress in early warnings.  The word is, of course, of Japanese origin.  They have noticed that some tsunami are preceded by the tide going out very rapidly before returning with its full vengeance.  This is probable due to the initial explosion driving the water away from the local coastline.  But until mankind has learned how to predict volcanic eruptions, we will be at the mercy of unpredictable events such as occurred on Boxing Day 2004.

6    I have covered the three events of the past, and the two prophesied ones for the future will probably be just a unpredicted.  I do not know the location of the huge lump of rock that is considered to be a menace to the east cost of the USA.  Somewhere in southern Europe there is a hillside close to the sea that geologist fear may fall into the sea when the next volcanic disturbance takes place.  As in everything volcanic, timescales are unknown.  It may be next year or in a hundred years' time.  What is certain is that the chunk of real estate will trigger a tsunami that will cross the Atlantic at high speed and strike the eastern seaboard of the USA.

7    And poor old Uncle Sam is due for yet another unpleasant shock within geological time.  The most powerful nation on the planet will be just as vulnerable as those wretched people in India and Ceylon.  Yellowstone Park is under constant observation by the USA geological people.  It is known that a tremendous explosion took place  at that location many years before the white man ventured into the continent.  It is also known that another huge eruption is due.  Just when it will happen is the million dollar question.  The ground around  "Old Faithful" is constantly on the move.  How far the havoc will spread is also anybody's guess.  The only consolation to the human race is that the USA will be the most capable nation to clear up the mess.  Mount St Helens in Washington State flexed its muscles a while back, but being a long way from habitation, little damage was done.

The recent hurricane that devastated New Orleans showed the world that even the USA does not take warnings seriously.  It is becoming evident that many researchers and academics prophesied a long while back that a severe hurricane could inundate the dykes and flood the city.  AND IT TOOK FIVE DAYS before serious  relief procedures were put in place.  Before the hurricane actually struck, the authorities told the population that it should get out of the city and head for high ground..  All those that had a car did, but a lot of the poor people had no transport at all.  George Bush has Air Force One, of course; but he didn't need to bother because he was in Washington anyway.

An update on 25 Feb 2006 after having read a New Scientist dated 22 October 2005

See essay ADH  (More details on This Restless World).  Also see ABQ